Projects » Econometric and statistical analysis

The aim of the project is to create new macroeconomic model for Montenegro, which will be used for projections related to the financial sector. The project is done for the needs of the Montenegrin Securities Commission.

This was the third school of economics organized by ISSP and MONSTAT. Its purpose was to inform participants of the program about the concepts, methodology and classification of statistical data and to train them to understand and use these data. Training program lasted three months, 23 participants from 15 different national ad local state institutions participated as well as 29 lecturers and trainers from country and abroad (among them also Mr. Pieter Everaers from EUROSTAT). In total 13 different subjects was covered including importance and role of the statistics in the EU integration process, EU statistical system, statistical system of Montenegro, and specific statistical areas such as SNA accounts, statistics of employment and unimplemented, price statistics, monetary statistics, structural business statistics, short terms business statistics, agricultural statistics etc. These subjects were covered through the 58 hours of lessons and additional number of trainings. In total participant received 330 pages of training materials.

Institute for Strategic Studies and Prognoses in cooperation with MONSTAT organized School of Statistics in 2006 and 2007. The aim of the project was education of public officials in statistical and research techniques and methodologies and efficient use of statistical information in the preparation of analysis. These two Schools (in 2006 and 2007) were titled: “Education in the function of implementation of Law of statistics” and “Statistical system in Montenegro” and were also aimed to help full and efficient implementation of the new Law on Statistics that was adopted at that time in Montenegro.

Project “Macroeconomic model for Montenegro” is project realized in cooperation with the Economic Institute of the Law Faculty in Ljubljana, (Slovenia) for the needs of the Montenegrin Central Bank. The aim of the project is to build a macroeconomic model for Montenegro that can be used for economic projections and maintenance of economic policies. It was done in 2005, and later improved in 2006 and 2007. In the year of 2007 new models were created: model for the estimation of inflation, model of leading indicators for predicting the movements of economic activity, model of stress testing and 3 sectorial models (investments, balance of payments and fiscal sector). This project represented the initial phase of using and developing respective models in Montenegro.

This report presents an analysis of the current status of economic, social and democratic reform processes in Montenegro. It offers recommendations for future steps and actions that will contribute to further improvement of the overall Montenegrin society. In addition, the document also provides a basis for the round table discussions that will provide additional input for the USAID mid-term strategy. Examination of the current transitional process is done through analysis of Ron Sprout performance indicators, or in some cases by defining new indicators and their analysis. The report covers three areas: economic transition, democratic transition and social transition.

The project is the comprehensive presentation of macroeconomic statistics in Montenegro for 2002.

The result of this project was a calculation of GDP for Montenegro for 2001. The importance of this figure is that it was not available in Montenegro and the ISSP was the first institution that calculated it based on internationally accepted methodology. The Montenegrin Government adopted the ISSP calculation as the official figure for Montenegrin GDP.

Bearing in mind the importance of the statistical system and work of statistical departments on economic development, the reform of the statistical system is needed. This project suggests the principles on which the statistical system should be based, organization of the statistical system, and steps that have to be taken in order to reform the statistical system in Montenegro.

The importance of the introduction of the SNA system in Montenegro is analyzed in this project. The project offers, in its first part, a description of the SNA system. The second part presents and analyzes preconditions to be fulfilled before the SNA system can be implemented, as well as steps in the process of implementation. Special focuses of the project are obstacles and problems that will be faced in the process of SNA implementation, and solutions for overcoming them.