Project Details

A STRUCTURAL MACROECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL FOR MONTENEGRO

The main aim of the project, funder under the SCOPES program of Swiss National

Science Foundation and Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, was creation of structural macroeconometric forecasting model for Montenegro in cooperation with KOF Institute from Zurich, Switzerland. This model will be used for quarterly economic forecasts as well as for simulations of alternative outcomes based on different assumptions about the conditioning variables, both domestic and international. The core of the Montenegrin macroeconometric model will consist of a structural model comprising the most important aggregates and prices of national accounting, following the latest ESVG 2010 standard. It will draw on previous macroeconomic modelling by the ISSP and the data on the Montenegrin economy available to the ISSP as well as on established practices and routines from the KOF model for Switzerland, properly adjusted to the Montenegrin conditions and inter-national context.